The Power and Pitfalls of Historical Data. Using the Past Wisely

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However, the lessons we draw from the past must be interpreted with nuance and care. In this episode of Becoming a Better Data Citizen, we'll explore both the strengths and weaknesses of using historical data, and provide tips for becoming savvy, ethical consumers of insights from times gone by.

The Allure of History

Why do we look to historical data in the first place? What key opportunities does it offer us?

• Trend Analysis: By studying patterns and trajectories within historical data sets, we can forecast behaviors or events that may recur. Economists may analyze past market crashes to develop theories on the cyclic nature of recessions. Climate scientists use ancient atmospheric samples to model future impacts of carbon emissions.
• Comparative Analysis: We can gain perspective by comparing current conditions to their historic counterparts. How do recent voting rights restrictions compare to past Jim Crow Era policies? Does the current opioid epidemic echo the dynamics of historic drug crises? These comparisons can reveal parallels and divergences to enlighten our understanding.
• Context: History provides the backstory behind current realities. To fundamentally tackle systemic racism, we must examine how historic redlining and employment discrimination impact modern poverty and opportunity divides. The complex roots of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict stretch back centuries. Historical context is key for informed solutions.
• Learning from Mistakes: At its best, history allows us to learn from past failures and mistakes to create a better future. By studying problematic political decisions and their negative consequences, we uncover the dangers of shortsighted policies. Understanding the costs of economic crises makes us deeply appreciate the financial regulations promoting stability today.

Historical data enables us to make wiser choices by illuminating patterns, providing context, and revealing past pitfalls.  But the insights must be carefully parsed.

Perils of Misusing the Past

Historical data carries innate risks of misinterpretation and manipulation. What are its potential downsides?

• Cherry-Picking Data: The past is complex, and contains evidence supporting diverse views. Selectively highlighting facts backing up one particular position while ignoring contradicting information is intellectually dishonest. Those denying humanity's role in climate change often cite historic fluctuations in temperatures, while ignoring the stark divergence in current exponential warming.  Another example would be if a company cites selected data on past stock prices increases to inflate projections while ignoring historical decreases and external factors.
• Confirmation Bias: People often succumb to confirmation bias, selecting and interpreting historical data in ways that affirm their existing beliefs or agendas. Politicians may cite free market success stories to confirm their faith in deregulation, ignoring historic market collapses. Proponents of harsh incarceration policies point to cherry-picked data showing prison lowers crime rates. A historian might select examples of effective monarchs to confirm a belief in the merits of absolute rule while ignoring examples of corruption and tyranny.
• Decontextualization: Historical data points lose meaning when stripped of their full context. Population statistics taken at face value can further racist ideologies unless contextualized by factors like immigration trends, access to healthcare, and economic opportunities of the time. Population level statistics on past pandemics could be cited devoid of context to make misleading comparisons to the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Justifying Status Quo: Those benefiting from the current status quo often use selective history narratives to justify it, hindering needed reforms. The famous aphorism that "those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it" cuts both ways. Those invested in maintaining their power may also manipulate history to rationalize repetitive harms. An elite university may reference prior eras when it only admitted male students from privileged backgrounds to resist calls to diversity the student body.
• Reinforcing Ideology: History can be contorted to reinforce tribal ideologies, be they political, religious, racial, or nationalistic. White supremacist groups twist history to portray non-white immigrants and minorities as invaders threatening their way of life. Certain sects use religious histories to portray other faiths as menacing outsiders, fueling ongoing conflict. Religious institutions may select particular theological texts from their history to defend doctrines prohibiting women from leadership roles while ignoring contradicting traditions.

As data citizens, we must approach historical data with nuance, carefully considering the context and source of the information, to separate valuable insights from manipulated misinformation.

Navigating Historical Data as Responsible Citizens

So how should we navigate historical data wisely in our volatile information ecosystem? Below are tips for becoming conscientious consumers of insights from the past:

• Consider varied sources: Seek out historical data from diverse sources representing different methodologies and perspectives. Challenge singular dominant narratives by examining contradictory accounts.
  • What are the sources? Do they represent diverse perspectives? What voices may be missing?
• Remember context: Situate historical data points within their full spatial, cultural, and chronological context before extrapolating meaning for the present day. Beware decontextualized statistics used to further agendas.
  • What was the context of this information? How might it impact interpretation?
• Note limitations: Recognize gaps and biases inherent in historical source material. For example, literate elite perspectives dominate written records, often overlooking common people and marginalized groups.
  • What biases or gaps exist? Which groups may be underrepresented?
• Question underlying agendas: Consider who funded and carried out processes of recording history, and how that may have skewed the narratives passed down. For example, colonial documents filter history through the lens of imperialist nations.
  • Who recorded this and for what purpose? Whose interests could have skewed it?
• Consult experts: Historians, sociologists, and archaeologists dedicate their careers to studying and interpreting history. Seek out their expertise rather than relying solely on your own readings or politically motivated pundits.
  • What expert insights are available? How do they expand my interpretation?
• Avoid overgeneralizations: Recognize that history is complex, and be cautious about making definitive predictions by extrapolating specific data points out of context. Not all phenomena neatly follow cyclic trajectories.
  • Am I oversimplifying complex insights? What nuance am I overlooking?
• Remain critical: Maintain a healthy skepticism about history being presented simplistically as "doomed to repeat" versus "comforting success stories" to score ideological points. The truth typically lies somewhere in the complex middle.
  • Is this history selectively presented to further specific ideologies or narratives? What complicates the dominant narrative?

Moving Forward More Thoughtfully

Responsible use of insights from the past requires us to hold two thoughts simultaneously in creative tension: appreciating history's wisdom while remaining critical of inherent limitations and biases.

Well-interpreted historical data can illuminate solutions to vexing societal challenges, guiding impactful policies firmly grounded in precedent and evidence. But we must also be cognizant of its potential misuse in service of those clinging desperately to power in unjust systems facing their twilight.

The powerful lessons of history belong to us all. They represent hard-won gains our ancestors fought for through generations of struggle against oppression. As engaged citizens, we must reclaim our history from political opportunists and honor those who came before us by striving to build a more just and verdant society. One where the sins of the past are never repeated, and the harbingers of the future are causes for hope, not fear.

Putting Principles into Practice

As responsible consumers of insights from the past, we must take an active role in continually honing our ability to interpret historical data with nuance and discernment. Below are some suggested reflective questions to ask yourself when engaging with historical narratives, as well as potential calls to action to further develop your skills as an ethical data citizen navigating the lessons of the past:

Reflective Questions:

• What are my own biases and agendas when I approach historical data? How might those color my interpretation?
• When have I fallen into the trap of cherry-picking history to confirm my existing beliefs? What contradicting evidence did I ignore?
• What voices and perspectives have been left out of the historical accounts I'm consulting? How could I seek out more diverse voices?
• Am I situating historical data in its full spatial, cultural, and chronological context before drawing conclusions? What more context should I consider?
• Have I rushed to overgeneralize lessons from history instead of recognizing its inherent complexity? What nuance am I missing?

Calls to Action:

• Make an effort to broaden the sources of historical data and narratives you rely on. Seek out resources that challenge your assumptions.
• Speak to historians and experts to gain a more grounded perspective when drawing upon historical insights.
• When using historical data in arguments or decisions, practice stating counter perspectives and contradictory sets of data.
• Advocate for adding more diverse voices and perspectives into official historical records, museums and textbooks.
• Approach appeals to history in political or social discourse with curiosity rather than knee-jerk reactions. Ask clarifying questions.
• Remain vigilant about how historical narratives may be manipulated, but don't become cynical about history's immense potential for illuminating wise pathways forward.